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Governor Christie – Polls and Politics

September 6, 2010

Chris Christie

On the day of his election in 2009, candidate Chris Christie obtained 49% of the vote.  Anyone following the contest recognized that he was going to act in ways that were very different from the red-state priorities of “George Corzine” and the New Jersey legislative Democrats.

After only eight months in office, it is clear that our current Governor is all about initiating major changes.  He has taken on the powerful state employee unions and has muscled the budget he wanted from a House and Senate controlled by the opposition party.  He has become a recognized rising star within the Republican Party and has been invited to appear on television news shows that have a national audience.

If the public has learned only one thing about this Administration, we have come to accept the fact that the new sheriff in town is brash and bold.  His supporters and detractors may agree on few items of consequence.  However, they have all come to recognize that the man is initiating major changes.  Any change causes uncertainty, fear, and resistance.   He has moved swiftly to make his mark and shoved the political pendulum in a direction that is the opposite of the past few years.

According to the most recent Quinnipiac University poll, 51% approve on the Governor’s job performance and 36% disapprove. This positive gap is a huge plus for Chris Christie.  It is safe to assume that the vast percentage of his natural supporters favor his actions and those who voted against him comprise the “dissatisfied” group.  Therefore, the most significant number in the poll is the one that is never directly mentioned; 13% have no opinion.   

Why is the 13% the most significant number?  Chris Christie amassed only 49% (less than a majority) and his current positive rating is 51%.  Therefore, a simple calculation tells us that vast majority of these votes came from those who voted against him. It is also likely that the lion’s share of the “undecideds” also voted against him.  It appears that after only seven months, these people have moved from “opposed” to “let’s give him a chance.”  This lowers levels of resistance for future initiatives. 

Imagine what happens if and when his policies start to succeed in a quantitative and qualitative way?  These “undecideds” will come to his camp quickly and strongly.  If Mr. Christie only impacts half of these folks in a positive manner, then his numbers are still up to 57% approval.  If that was his election number in 2013, it will be considered to be close to a landslide win.

As a United States Attorney, Mr. Christie created an impressive track record by doing something that many people thought was impossible; successfully prosecuting well over 100 corrupt officials and politicians.  

Only a fool would bet against his ability to demonstrate similar success as Governor.

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6 Comments leave one →
  1. SpeakUpNJ permalink
    September 6, 2010 2:51 pm

    Not so fast in assuming the 49 % that voted for Christie and GAVE him a victory are just loving his current performance and will not leave him in the future election. Christie started off strong but then began to try to be an accommodator with the Liberal Democrats in Trenton, which is another way of saying he tried to be what the GOP Old School still thinks is the way to stay in power….RINO. Well guys, that’s not the case. GOP and Mr. Christie need to realize that the times are a-changing. The country is center right and NJ will be center right. The more GOP and Christie try to appease the left, the more they should realize we’ll have a one term Gov in the State House. For example, Christie’s position on RGGI and using the money for Wind Turbines is a left wing appeasement issue. Regional Cap and Trade is a loser for NJ citizens and they know it, and Christie just jumped on the RGGI bandwagon with Steve Sweeney as a partner! Nice move if you want to be a one term wonder. Here’s another, Christie has stupidly gone out of his way to support the Old School GOP candidate for senator in Delaware, Mike Castle! Look at Castle’s voting record…how do you spell RINO? And, we all know that RINOs are BIG animals that love to travel in herds! What I am trying to say jokingly is this…Christie has in no way a guarantee that his 49% are “in the bag” and he needs to start being consistent in his policies or he WILL lose the conservative base that put him in the Governors Office!

    • September 7, 2010 5:39 am

      Hi:

      I appreciate that you read my thoughts and responded.

      Please note that near the end of the article, I infer that the final evaluation for the Governor will be dependent upon “‘qualitative and quantitative success.”

      I believe that is what is most important is that we have a cadre of conservatives pulling the cart of Congress to the right. It is the pendulum movement that matters most. The disappointment of the 2000’s was that there was no one conservative, or a group, that was willing and able to shame the members of our party for acting like wild-spending liberals.

      Let’s hope that ..should they win, this time will be different.

      Stew

    • SpeakUpNJ permalink
      September 7, 2010 8:59 am

      Christie shows such promise as a true leader that can reshape opinion and direction for NJ. My concern is the man will listen to the “old ways of the GOP” and not realize accomodation with the left is political suicide. Accomodation in the past has only brought us certain economic decay and moral confusion. A leader sets the course, a new course and is not interested in accomodation. And, he must demonstrate it every day to the citizens to effect true change!

      • September 7, 2010 9:32 am

        Thanks for reading my words and offering your opinion.

        I agree that it is wise for those of us on the right to keep a close watch on what occurs. As Ronald Reagan said, “trust, but verify.”

        For now….let’s enjoy the momentum and observe the results.

        All the best,

        Stew

  2. Seeing the Big Picture permalink
    September 6, 2010 5:33 pm

    The Union’s have bankrupted the countries manufactoring sector. Nobody shipped the jobs overseas, the jobs got up and left because of the Deomcrats policy of high taxes, over regulation and strict labor laws. This left alot of labor leaders, lobbiest and union lawyers out of work. so they decided to move their Cartel ponzi sceme to the public sector, thinking the governemnt couldn’t bankruptcyor move overseas. Well they were wrong because many states are now on the verge of going bankrupt because of the Union’s. This article from the Heritage Foundation web cite explains how the union’s have infultrated the public sector and continue to extort tax payers.

    Labor Day Has Become Government Day

    This Labor Day marks a milestone in the history of the U.S. union movement. It is the first Labor Day on which a majority of union members in United States work for the government. In January the Department of Labor reported that union membership in government has overtaken that in the private sector. Three times as many union members work in the Post Office as in the entire domestic auto industry. The face of the union movement is not a worker on the assembly line but a clerk at the DMV.

    This is a dramatic shift for the union movement. The early trade unionists did not believe that unions had a place in government. They believed the purpose of unions was to redistribute business profits from owners to workers … and the government makes no profits. Not until the 1960s did unionizing government employees become widespread. Now government employees make up 52 percent of all union members.

    So what? Why should Americans care if unions are now dominated by workers who get their paychecks from governments, instead of workers who get their paychecks from private firms? There’s one simple reason: private firms face competition; governments don’t.

    Collective bargaining, the anti-trust exemption at the heart the labor movement’s power, was created to help workers seize their “fair share” of business profits. But if a union ends up extracting a contract from a private firm that eats up too much of the profits, then that firm will be unable to reinvest those resources and will lose out to competitors. But when a union extracts a generous contract from a government, there is no check on that spending. Instead of being forced out by more efficient competitors, the government just raises taxes.

    The shift from private to public sector has fundamentally changed organized labor’s priorities. Unions used to support policies that would help their private sector employers grow. But now that they are largely dependent on the government, the only growth that unions are interested in is the growth of government. So unions push for tax increases across the country. Consider recent union activism:

    • Illinois. Unions want state lawmakers to increase the state income tax from 3 percent to 5 percent and to expand the sales tax to cover some services. In April 2010 they organized rallies of government workers outside the state capitol shouting “Raise my taxes! Raise my taxes! Raise my taxes!” At that rally, a government union member was caught on camera chanting “Where’s the money?” and “Give up the bucks!”

    • Montana. The Montana teachers union openly sees itself as a supporter of tax and spend politics. Its President boasts, “Were it not for us almost any one of the … anti-tax and spend ballot issues proposed in the last 25 years would have passed.”

    • New Mexico. Unions lobbied the state’s legislature to raise taxes to deal with its budget deficit. The union got its wish, but it was not the wealthy who paid – the legislature imposed a 2 percent sales tax on food.

    • Washington state. Washington state has no income tax, and unions want to change that. They have placed an initiative on the November ballot creating a state income tax and are among the top donors to the campaign to pass it.

    Government unions are the backbone of the Obama dependency economy. Taxpayers should not have to subsidize union campaigns, much less those that call for tax increases. At the very least Congress should end the automatic payroll deduction of union dues.

    Heritage Foundation web cite.

    The question I want to ask is why on earth does a government worker need a union? Is the government running a sweat shop? hardly……

  3. Mark Hutchinson permalink
    September 7, 2010 10:00 am

    Governor Christie recently signed the offshore wind economic act in support of the regional greenhouse gas initiative, NJ’s version of cap and trade. He appointed Paula Dow a liberal democrat as state attorny. Passed a 2.0 cap on taxes then allowed the democrats to write exceptions to the cap, including pension payments to state workers union’s. By the way a 2.0 cap on tax increase’s is still an increase. Conservative? I think not!

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